Key points:
Ethereum holders are back in profit, increasing chances for a rally to $3,000 and beyond.
Ether sell pressure risk exists at $2,800, where 2.27 million ETH could be sold.
Ether’s recent surge to $2,700 on May 14 pushed its value above its realized price, implying that the average holder of ETH is “now back in an unrealized profit,” according to Glassnode.
Ethereum trades above its cost basis
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether’s (ETH) price has risen by more than 52% to a three-month high of $2,700 on May 14 from $1,800 on May 7, fueled by excitement around the Pectra upgrade.
This rally has seen ETH rise above its realized price or cost basis, currently at $1,900, paving the way for a potential rally to $3,000 or higher.
ETH holders returning to profit after unrealized losses “provides meaningful financial relief for many holders, signaling a bullish outlook,” Glassnode explained in its latest report.
Historically, during the early phase of a rally, holders in profit provided upward momentum by holding firm and attracting new investors.
Further analysis of the cost basis of active market participants indicated the “strength of this upward move” as the price moved above its True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, at $2,400. This indicates fresh capital inflows into the market at higher prices.
As Cointelegraph reported, holding above $2,400 was crucial to ensure a potential $3,000 retest.
Despite Ether’s recent outperformance, Glassnode analysts noted that the Active Realized Price still sits overhead around $2,900 and remains a key level that must be “decisively reclaimed to support continued improvement in investor confidence” in the altcoin.
The market intelligence firm added:
“The $2,400–$2,900 range remains a crucial area for Ethereum, acting as both a resistance zone and a potential breakout level essential for maintaining upward momentum.”
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades also said that ETH price must “convincingly break” out of the $2,400-$2,600 range before rising higher to confront high-timeframe resistance between $2,800 and $2,850.
“Not looking to do much until we at least convincingly break out of this local range.
2.27 million ETH at $2,800 could trigger a sell-off
According to Ether’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 2.27 million ETH at an average cost basis of $2,767, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Ether’s upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, ETH must flip the $3,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs above $4,000.
But first, the ETH/USD pair must close above the $2,600-$2,800 range, where the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) currently sit. ETH price dropped below this level in February, driven by risk-off sentiment following Trump’s tariff measures.
One positive catalyst for the bulls could be continued demand from spot Ethereum ETFs. Ether ETFs registered $100.7 million in net inflows in the last three days, per Farside Investors’ data.
Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to keep the $2,600 resistance in place to increase the likelihood of pulling the price lower. The immediate target is below the $2,400 level, or the 200-day SMA.
Below $2,400, the next key area of interest remains between $2,200 and the psychological level at $2,000. Reaching $1,800 would erase all the gains made after the Pectra upgrade.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
